The Water Tiger | John mangun
The year 2022 will be the year of the Water Tiger. From Karma Weather: “The New Year symbolizes determination, spontaneity and novelty. It is a period that draws its strength despite adversity, in dynamism and enthusiasm. The Chinese year 2022 is synonymous with unforeseen changes and surprising developments. “
I’ll definitely go with that last sentence. But also, “It is also a good time for all those who wish to forget their stormy past and find a rightful place in society.” I hope in 2022 to find a legitimate place in a reclining chair at the directors’ club of a neighboring SM cinema. Then I will know that the pandemic is over or at the “living with it” stage.
However, 2021 is still far from being in the rearview mirror, so it’s time to anticipate the end of this year.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich daddy, poor daddy, predicts that a “giant” stock market crash should occur this October. He said on October 2 that the wheels were moving to make this happen, and the price of gold, silver and Bitcoin would drop dramatically as a result. Kiyosaki: “This is going to be the biggest accident in the history of the world. Any intervention by the Federal Reserve will not stop the impending market crash. Well, that’s depressing.
From the UK comes Miles J, an abstract artist and “investor and trader” of non-fungible assets and BTC. He also looks surprisingly like Jon Snow from Game Of Thrones. He predicts that Bitcoin will reach $ 450,000 to $ 520,000 by December 25, 2021.
I can predict with 100% accuracy that there is at least a 50/50 chance that one of these gentlemen is wrong. I’ll bet money on it.
I have sometimes been known to give predictions for the future. Yesterday at the ANC, I predicted that the Philippine Stock Exchange index would be around 8,000 by the end of 2021 or early 2022. Note “early 2022” and this is subject to revision at “start” 2022 ”for“ end of second quarter 2022 ”. Can I say that my forecasts are “never wrong”, even if they are not always right?
To the attributes of the Water Tiger, can we add “opportunist”, even vengeful? Brent crude oil fell from $ 70 in January 2020 to $ 28 in April as demand plummeted. Not only the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia were selling less oil, but at a very low price. Joe Biden became President of the United States and immediately turned the United States into an oil importing country from a net exporter. Oil is now back to 2018 levels ($ 80).
Opec said it had “reconfirmed the production adjustment plan” after relatively swift ministerial talks. This referred to its previous decision to add 400,000 barrels per day in November. The United States and India were hoping that the surge in oil prices might persuade the group to offer more supply or lower prices. Much laughter was heard in the background during the OPEC ministerial meeting.
Inflation? The cost of living adjustment in the United States for 2022, which could reach 6%, could be the highest since 1982. Economic growth? The International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth in 2022 to be 4.9%. But with a forecast global inflation rate of 3.3%, real gross domestic product growth will keep total global economic output at levels close to 2018.
Add to this data the imminent bursting of the bubble in the Chinese real estate sector and the bond market. Additionally, we have the potential that an idiot – pick any country – presses the wrong button on a warship / warplane in the South China Sea region. The Water Tiger of 2022 could be extremely unforeseen and surprising.
Email me at [email protected] Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock market information and technical analysis provided by AAA Southeast Equities Inc.