ohTAKING THEIR In parliamentary mailboxes last month, Italian lawmakers were surprised to find an anthology of speeches by Silvio Berlusconi. On the cover was a photograph of the former prime minister, arms raised high to greet the adulation of an unseen crowd. The brochure, modestly titled “I am Forza Italia” (“Come on, Italy”, the party Mr Berlusconi founded and leads), was the first bet in the 85-year-old media mogul’s undeclared campaign to cap his career eventful with election, by a college of parliamentarians, to the highest office in Italy. The term of outgoing president Sergio Mattarella expires on February 3 and he has repeatedly ruled out an extension. The race for his succession now dominates Italian public life.

Why? A president spends a large part of his time giving speeches, awarding honors and receiving dignitaries. He (there has never been a female president) has important powers, including the responsibility to dissolve parliament and appoint the prime minister. But these powers are few. What makes choosing a president so important right now is that those who are supposed to covet the job include current Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the guarantor of Brussels and the markets Italy will spend. productively the 200 billion euros (225 billion dollars) that it is to obtain from the EUrecovery fund in the event of a pandemic.

Whatever direction the Presidency takes, it could create a problem. If Mr. Draghi fails in his attempt to be chosen as the next occupant of the Quirinal Palace, his position will be diminished and therefore his ability to hold together the broad coalition of parties that support him but whose only common denominator is admiration. struck with respect for him. If, however, he succeeds, a replacement will have to be found that will prevent the heterogeneous coalition from collapsing. And it won’t be easy at all.

Either way, the chances of a snap election will diminish, and if an early vote is held, polls currently suggest the result would be a two-party-dominated coalition government with a history of confrontation with the European Commission: the Brotherhood of the Party of Italy, whose roots lie in neo-fascism, and the populist Northern League. In Italy the risks of this tend to be minimized. Not so elsewhere. Teneo, a consultancy firm, recently warned that Mr. Draghi’s elevation could “plunge the country back into political turmoil, undermining efforts to implement the reforms needed to secure regular stimulus fund disbursements.”

Giorgia Meloni of the Brothers and Matteo Salvini of the League both nominally support their ally, Mr. Berlusconi. But it is clear that their interests are in fact to bring Mr. Draghi upstairs. Whether he and they will get what they want is another question: a solution that allows Mr Draghi to remain as prime minister with minimal loss of face can still be found. Enrico Letta, the leader of the center-left Democratic Party, who has risen to the top of the polls in recent weeks, wants Mr. Draghi to stick around. And recent statements by prominent figures from the Five Star Movement, which remains the largest group in parliament despite its collapse in the polls since the previous elections, suggest they do, too.

Perhaps most important of all is the self-preservation instinct, both political and financial, of Italian lawmakers. Due to a reform in 2019, the next parliament will have around two-thirds of the number of seats in the current one. And if the next elections take place before September 24, 2022, the first-time parliamentarians among them will lose their pension rights. It is not for nothing that Mr Berlusconi suggests that, if appointed president, he would ensure that the legislature goes to the end of his term in 2023. ■

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline “Guess who?